That was a question recently posed to Tara and me.
The answer: watch the candidates.
The presidential candidates are tied in Iowa according to polling data aggregated by RealClearPolitics.com. Where will Barack and Michelle Obama, Joe and Jill Biden, and Mitt Romney be this Friday? Hmmm...
Presidential ads have disappeared from the televisions of Pennsylvanians. Polling shows Obama up nearly eight points.
Conservative groups are pulling their ads from Michigan, despite the fact that external polls have the President only leading by 2.4 (due to an outlier poll that had Romney up 4).
Campaigns follow their own internal polling and an observer can discern not only the state of the race but the different strategies of the campaigns--for example, the effort by the President to recreate the 2008 enthusiasm among young people by campaigning in college towns.
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