Paul Takes Lead in Latest ISU Poll

Texas Congressman Ron Paul is the leading candidate among Iowa's likely Republican caucus-goers, according to a new Iowa State University/Gazette/KCRG poll.

Paul received 27.5 percent in the poll while Newt Gingrich, former U.S. House Speaker, came in a close second with 25.3 percent. The poll's margin of error was at plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Mitt Romney, former Massachusetts governor, was third with 17.5 percent.

Story County Supervisor Rick Sanders said it wouldn't surprise him if Paul won the caucus Jan. 3. 

"It's looking less and less likely that Gingrich will win. He doesn't have the momentum or the organization," he said.

James McCormick, Iowa State University's chairman of political science, said 51 percent of Paul's supporters said they would definitely back the man, while supporters for Romney and Gingrich were less sure.

“"The percentage for the next two candidates is much weaker, at 16.1 for Mitt Romney and 15.2 for Newt Gingrich,” McCormick said in a release.

The new Iowa State University/Gazette/KCRG poll was conducted between Dec. 8 and 18. They called 740 registered Republicans and 200 registered independents, but only took answers from 330 people who said they would attend the caucuses. Paul received more support from women, people earning less than $25,000 a year, and college graduates when compared to other candidates.

Whatever the outcome on Jan. 3, Sanders said he is most interested in how it would affect Iowa's longterm prospects at keeping the first in the nation caucus. 

"If Iowa is too far outside the main stream it's pretty easy to start discounting (results,)" Sanders said. 

Other states could use results to diminish the state's standing, he said.