Why Turnout Is Important

Although the point of this post by Jay Cost is to complain about the partisan weighting of the recent polls, I take away another message:  voter turnout efforts by the political parties will determine the outcome of the presidential election.

Cost echoes a complaint by many Republicans this cycle:  Romney is tied or leading among independent voters in many polls, but is losing in the "topline" number to President Obama. 

All things being even, Obama and Romney enjoy the same level of support from their respective political parties.  So if Romney leads among independents, he should be winning overall, right?

He's not.  And that's because the pollsters must attempt to predict turnout among the parties.  Polls are generally weighted toward Democrats, because Democrats tend to turnout in greater numbers in Presidential years.

Quite simply, if the race remains even among independents, the party that turns out more of its voters wins.