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Health & Fitness

Who Do You Support? How About Now?

60 percent of caucus-goers will tell who they support today...but check back with them tomorrow.

A poll by Ann Selzer of West Des Moines always draws attention because she's rightfully attained a national reputation for accuracy.

Her new poll confirms what Iowa activists sense to be true: Romney, Cain, Gingrich, and Paul lead the pack.

BUT...

The poll reflects the race’s fluidity, with 60 percent of respondents saying they still could be persuaded to back someone other than their top choice, and 10 percent undecided. Paul’s support is more solidified than his rivals, while Cain’s is softer. All of the major contenders have issue challenges to address.

60 percent of voters could change their minds between now and January 3rd. That's why even the most accurate of polling at this date isn't much of an indicator of what will happen on caucus night.

Iowa activists get polled on an almost daily basis and can change their answers day-to-day.

Another factor contributing to the fluidity of the race is that the caucus winner must combine both enthusiasm and a successful turn-out effort on Jan. 3. Voters can answer a pollster's question easily...but a candidate can over- or under-perform the polls by not effectively driving supporters to their local caucus site on the night of the event.

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