The 2012 Challenge For Democrats

I've been more gracious in my assessment of the Occupy movement than some on the right, because I believe that the movement began by expressing a core sentiment felt by many voters: that our government doesn't represent the larger majority in the country anymore. We have a patronage government that hands out favors to donors or big voting blocs.

Here's another voice that believes that the Occupy movement has more in common with the Tea Party than many are willing to admit: Law professor M. Todd Henderson argues that both the Occupy and Tea Party movements are frustrated over policy that favors "concentrated interests" over the interests of the majority.

That means both movements aren't necessarily aligned with one ideology or the other; a defense contractor or big business may have undue influence on policy; but so do unions.

Democrats are hoping to be the electoral beneficiaries of the Occupy movement--but I think the overall mood of the electorate creates a bigger problem for Democrats in 2012 than for Republicans.

That's because the number of Americans who say big government is the biggest threat to the country is one percentage point shy of the record high...while the number of Americans who say big business is the biggest threat is trending downward.

One note for Republicans: the number of Americans who believe big labor is the biggest threat is minimal.

That means that a Republican candidate who rails generally against big government (Reagan-style) is set for a strong election cycle.

One can hardly picture President Obama making such a case. In fact, Democrats have been so focused on the President's electoral troubles that they've not been talking about the poor environment in general for the party. It's not an environment that the Occupy movement will negate for Democrats, particularly if the Occupy movement comes to understand that a big government is the overarching reason for the success of "concentrated interests" at the expense of the majority.