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Health & Fitness

Personality Trumps Organization

Recent polling defies the conventional wisdom that organization counts in winning the presidential nomination contest in early states.

When Tim Pawlenty finished third in the Iowa straw poll, many insiders were shocked. It was widely acknowledged that Pawlenty had the best organizers in the state.

But as a wise friend pointed out, Pawlenty's people didn't fail him. They turned out everyone that would vote for him at the straw poll. And that wasn't enough.

I thought about this fact today when reviewing this poll from New Hampshire, which shows Herman Cain in second place in that state. Cain is also making a strong showing in the latest Iowa polls.

But notice that the article notes that Cain doesn't "have an organized effort" in New Hampshire. Cain also has had limited appearances, and limited organizational efforts, in Iowa.

It appears that the debate performances are driving candidate popularity. On one level, this makes sense. The most active voters, who will show up on caucus/primary night, are paying attention to the debates.

But this development also defies the conventional wisdom that superior organization and retail politics determine candidate success in the early states.

Unfortunately, this gives opponents of the early states another reason to campaign against allowing Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina go first. If media appearances, rather than face-to-face politicking, works for a candidate, who will care if Florida kicks things off?

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