Health & Fitness
Beware The Polling Methodology!
Who is being polled is just as important as what is being polled.
Two polls made a splash nationally on Wednesday. But their disparate results remind voters to be discerning about these snapshot polls of Iowa.
A CNN/Time poll showed a Santorum surge , while a Public Policy Polling result did not .
The difference? Methodology . CNN/Time polled only registered Republicans, while the PPP poll included independents and Democrats that plan to cross over. This is easy to do , as a voter can simply walk in at a caucus site, register as a Republican, and write a name on a blank piece of paper (like Sarah Palin !).
Ron Paul does well when crossover voters are included.
I have no doubt that Santorum is riding a "Huckabee" wave in Iowa...he has the support and organizational backing of influential social conservatives and has worked hard.
But the poll on which to depend comes out on Saturday night : the Des Moines Register poll conducted by Ann Selzer. That poll is very accurate .