Tara and I are political activists who hang out with other political activists. Specifically, we often hang out with members of "the base"--Democrats who always vote Democratic and Republicans who always vote Republican.
Despite the daily barrage of information detailing the campaign strategies of the candidates for President, who REALLY is left to be swayed?
According to Charlie Cook of the National Journal, it's between 6-8 percent of the electorate.
We are past the point where Obama can win a referendum election, regardless of whether it is on him or the economy. The success of his campaign is contingent upon two things. First, when focusing on the narrow sliver of undecided voters, between 6 and 8 percent of the electorate, the Obama team must make its candidate the lesser of two evils. It has to make the prospect of a Mitt Romney presidency so unpalatable that about half of those undecided voters will begrudgingly vote for reelection.
...The second key is turnout. African-Americans look solid for Obama and very likely to vote in high numbers, but young and Latino voters’ turnout appears problematic.
This fall, the political parties will focus on turn-out of the base, while the campaigns will try to sway that small sliver of voters.